In a recent rise in us dollar, the RMB exchange rate out of a wave “independent” market. On Tuesday, in the previous trading day jumping as much as 92 basis points, on the basis of the exchange rate for the renminbi middle rate continued to rise 29 basis points, the sixth consecutive day rise, one dollar to the yuan to 6.2891, and in May this year to new highs. At the same time, the spot rate continuous 11th trading day touch day trade interval cap, the dollar PaoPan pressure is not reduced.
The spot exchange rate on 11 consecutive touch “harden”
And days, on Tuesday morning a opening, in the middle price rise drive, the renminbi spot exchange rate will quote 6.2262, a day 6.2891 intermediate valence band just 1%, this is also the spot market price continuous 11th trading day seal in the “limit up” position.
And market traders are accustomed to. Shanghai a foreign line foreign exchange traders helplessly to tell a reporter, now in the market hold dollars will not to be strong, the dollar PaoPan pressure big, spot market price continuous sealing to day trade limit position, and little change.
The China foreign exchange trading center data display, except for a few times on Tuesday small change outside, the RMB against the us dollar inquiry most of the time are firmly sealed in “harden” position and continue to refresh remit to record high since, but tail reels open harden dropped sharply, and finally closed at 6.2265, display has been sporadic buying.
For the recent strong appreciation of RMB, the reason of the market more mainstream viewpoint including, the quantitative easing to liquidity to return to emerging markets, our trade surplus hit a record high, 45 months on October economic data to turn good domestic economy stabilises touch the bottom gradually clear, etc., are expected to increase to the appreciation of the renminbi.
Although settlement of exchange is still spot market prices strong upward direct reason, but in fact, foreign exchange settlement exchange rate fluctuations will is more to the lag of the reaction. Financial experts ZhaoQingMing points out, the recent strong rising and a reason is that, at present, China’s RMB currency markets lack of depth and width, it is easy to appear “overwhelming” expected, which accelerated the rise.
The future trend of appreciation of the obvious
Careful observation is not difficult to discover, the recent strong, and not in the substantial depreciation of the dollar occurring. To this, ZhaoQingMing points out, this kind of phenomenon can be regarded as the yuan deductive “independent market”. He pointed out that, “in achieving equilibrium exchange rate in the process of state, need to allow the yuan has the independence the quotation, this kind of situation in economy when undermined by the more common.”
In fact, the review by the end of last year to July of this year the wave of the devaluation of RMB, but also by the end of last year at the spot exchange rate of RMB to continuous drop, since then, gradually deduce a burning depreciation expected, and gradually expand, and eventually become nominal exchange rate of the actual devaluation, until July began to gradually reversal.
To this, the market analysis that the recent continuous harden or for the revised the appreciation of the renminbi “prelude”, a big row foreign exchange traders pointed out that at present the RMB successive harden or appreciation of this a prelude, plus the RMB exchange rate actual control gradually relax, this increase or more than the end of last year to the decline in the value of the greater range.
Review since this year yuan movements, although the middle price yesterday did not meet in May this year year high, but has turned to this year the depreciation of the situation, a modest rise 0.18% by the end of last year.
Experts point out that, this year the uptrend material will continue. ZhaoQingMing said exports better and economy stabilises, will support the future RMB upward trend, is expected to this year the yuan will continue to rise, but in order to support the just milder export, which is not too large, the year the yuan increase in material between 1% and 3%, will be lower than last year’s 5.1% gain